Tariff Wars, Tech Uncertainty and the Future of CyberSecurity in Southeast Asia - my personal reflection...

I never imagined that a geopolitical dispute over semiconductors and trade routes could end up sitting at the heart of our work in cybersecurity.

But here we are.

As someone who’s been navigating the cybersecurity and IT landscape in Southeast Asia for over a decade, I’ve always believed in the resilience of our region. We adapt quickly, we hustle harder, and we’ve built solutions even when resources were scarce. But the global tariff war that’s heating up right now—especially between the US, China, and the EU—is hitting our industry in ways I don’t think any of us fully prepared for.

Let me explain.

How the Tariff War Is Changing the Game

It started with chips. Now it’s about everything. Firewalls, servers, endpoint devices, even software subscriptions hosted in cloud jurisdictions—prices will go up, and access is getting murkier.

We’re slowly seeing:

• Delayed shipments of networking hardware due to increased export controls.

• Rising costs of security appliances because components are stuck in layers of compliance checks.

• Pressure on local IT budgets—especially in developing countries—because USD-based licensing just became a lot more painful with currency fluctuations.

• Cloud infrastructure uncertainty, especially when data sovereignty becomes part of a trade negotiation.

For organizations in Southeast Asia, especially banks, telcos, and critical infrastructure companies, this creates risk. Real, measurable risk. Delayed projects. Increased exposure windows. And a growing talent drain, as skilled engineers get poached by higher-paying companies abroad.

What We Should Be Preparing For

This downturn isn't just economic—it's strategic. And if you're leading IT or cybersecurity in your organization, here’s what I believe we need to start doing today:

1. Diversify Vendor Dependencies

Don’t bet everything on a single US or China-based vendor. Look at regional players, or even hybrid stacks. Open-source, community-supported tools are rising again—not just because of cost, but because of flexibility.

2. Invest in Skills, Not Just Tools

When you can't control hardware availability, your people become your strongest asset. Upskill your team in areas like digital forensics, cloud-native security, and even threat intelligence. Talent retention is now a strategic advantage.

3. Localize Your Cyber Strategy

If your threat models still rely on US-based threat feeds or single-source cloud backups, you’re exposed. Build redundancies in-country. Use local SOCs or hybrid MDR setups. Align your security plans with regional realities.

4. Plan for Long-Term Budget Squeeze

CFOs are already looking to cut. Preempt them by creating smarter investment cases—show ROI from consolidating platforms, optimizing licenses, or preventing high-profile breaches. Cybersecurity is no longer “too technical”—it’s part of your business narrative.

My Message to Fellow Practitioners

I know many of us are tired. First it was COVID, then the economic crisis, and now this tech cold war that’s changing the way we secure our systems.

But here’s the thing: we’ve been here before.

Southeast Asia has always found a way to rise. From building homegrown mobile banking in Indonesia, to defending against massive cyberattacks in Vietnam and the Philippines, we’ve proved time and again that we don’t wait for others to build the future—we create it ourselves.

So let’s not panic. Let’s prepare.

Let’s lean into our communities, open-source networks, and regional alliances. Let’s share intelligence, collaborate on incident response, and grow the next generation of defenders.

Because no matter what tariffs or trade battles are happening above us—we still control how we protect our digital lives.